9 J ul 2 00 1 Predictability of catastrophic events : material rupture , earthquakes , turbulence , financial crashes and human birth
نویسنده
چکیده
We propose that catastrophic events are " outliers " with statistically different properties than the rest of the population and result from mechanisms involving amplifying critical cascades. Applications and the potential for prediction are discussed in relation to the rupture of composite materials, great earthquakes, turbulence and abrupt changes of weather regimes, financial crashes and human parturition (birth).
منابع مشابه
Predictability of catastrophic events: material rupture, earthquakes, turbulence, financial crashes, and human birth.
We propose that catastrophic events are "outliers" with statistically different properties than the rest of the population and result from mechanisms involving amplifying critical cascades. We describe a unifying approach for modeling and predicting these catastrophic events or "ruptures," that is, sudden transitions from a quiescent state to a crisis. Such ruptures involve interactions between...
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تاریخ انتشار 2001